In fact, at least two low-level ongoing disputes -- the Karen-led insurgency in Myanmar and the effective collapse of civil order in Papua New Guinea -- have the potential to spill over into neighboring territories and thus require the intervention of regional or global peacekeepers. Although Myanmar has been a member of ASEAN in relatively good standing since 1997, the ruling junta's efforts to enforce cultural and political unity on its heterogenous population (Cheesman 2002, p
Australia, which contributes about AUD150 million a year to support the country's police force and court system, recognizes that this campaign has largely been a failure. Already, the Papua New Guinea internal security situation is "in a desperate state" and new recruitment of police personnel from elsewhere in the region is "a matter of urgency" (Dixon, Gene, and Walter 2008, p
Se Asia Conflict Triggers Local Quarrels, Regional Risks: Myanmar and Papua New Guinea Decades of relative peace and prosperity have allowed the democracies of Southeast Asia the latitude to pursue economic cooperation and relatively stable domestic policies. But while the "liberal peace" of ASEAN has allowed its members to support each other's traditional security interests while settling disputes through non-violent channels (Dosch 2007, p
78). While the Karen are currently not the military threat to the junta they were before the 1995 fall of Manerplaw (Fong 2008, p
As such, it so would naturally be motivated to check any attempt to intervene in the country on the side of the rebels or, practically speaking, on the side of the ruling junta itself: Beijing has no interest in seeing Myanmar pander to foreign powers with interests inimical to those of Beijing. […] From a Chinese point-of-view, it is also important to prevent instability in Myanmar that could result in the central authorities losing control over the border areas, particularly if this resulted in a further exacerbation of the drug flow into China or foreign intervention (Haacke 2005, p
1087). Several of the nation's ethnic minorities have sponsored long-term secessionist movements; one of the strongest, that of the Karen culture, has proved to be extremely persistent over the last six decades (Hironaka 2005, p
While reports from 2003 (Checchi et al. 2003, p. 74) and 2007 (Hull 2009, p
167). Moreover, Myanmar has energy resources that India both covets (Lall 2006, p
As the primary administrator of much of this territory for most of the last century, Australia considers itself the "strong neighbor" in the Southwest Pacific. The country sent observers to Indonesia during that nation's early struggle for independence (Londey 2004, p
26), given its colonial history there. Somewhat more recently, Australia provided tacit material support for Papua's invasion of the breakaway Bougainville faction (McMillan 1997, p
199) remain controversial both among the membership (Than 2005, p. 20) and the wider international community (Moller 1998, p
91). Still, "the ASEAN way" does not allow for interference in the internal affairs of a member state (Mondejar and Chu 2005, p
While Myanmar has only partially succeeded in welding its diverse population into a modern nation, Papua New Guinea has arguably had next to no success at all. With an estimated six times as many ethnic groups inside its borders and limited experience with the machinery of modern government (Morgan and McLeod 2006, p
30) However, other players in the region are more open to the idea of intervention in a neighbor's affairs, especially if it means propping up a state that is on the verge of civil war or outright failure. India shares a long border with Myanmar and the two nations have occasionally cooperated in recent years to raid the equally intransigent insurgencies of the Northeastern Tribal Areas on that border, which have given India a taste of the trouble that the Karen and other movements have created for Myanmar over the decades (Nardi 2008, p
[…] Years of junketing, greed, sloth, sheer incompetence, and outright corruption [are] sending Papua New Guinea into an economic tailspin, exacerbated by an accompanying increase in crime. The country is dependent on foreign grants and loans, without which it would be bankrupt (Pitts 2001, p
On the other hand, the real menace in this scenario may be that posed by Indonesia (which has in the past pressed claims to multiple other enclaves within its archipelago) to a failed Papuan state. The border between the two halves of the island has often been a source of tension (Premdas 1985, pp
1-2), destabilizing the country, inaugurating a new phase in its long civil war, and possibly prompting a humanitarian response. Second, counter-strikes against rebel positions along the border could provoke the Thai military to respond in self-defense, especially if the natural gas pipelines that run across the frontier are damaged or Myanmar makes an incursion into the disputed Three Pagodas Pass region (Rajah 1994, p
169), it is not difficult to imagine a scenario in which increasingly systematic reprisals against civilians create an ideal guerilla recruiting environment, an international humanitarian disaster, or a combination of the two. In 2005, roughly 540,000 Karen and other rural people along the Thai frontier had been internally displaced by ongoing military activity in the area (South 2007a, p
169), it is not difficult to imagine a scenario in which increasingly systematic reprisals against civilians create an ideal guerilla recruiting environment, an international humanitarian disaster, or a combination of the two. In 2005, roughly 540,000 Karen and other rural people along the Thai frontier had been internally displaced by ongoing military activity in the area (South 2007a, p
Although Myanmar has been a member of ASEAN in relatively good standing since 1997, the ruling junta's efforts to enforce cultural and political unity on its heterogenous population (Cheesman 2002, p. 199) remain controversial both among the membership (Than 2005, p